The author concludes that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea. His opinions based on the coincidence that recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt and the local hunters report that deer population are declining. Seemingly organized logically, the argument is unconvincing in several respects. First, the reliability of the report of local hunter is questionable. The author didnt tell us how many local hunters report that deer population is declining; its entirely possible that just a few, for example 3, hunters reported that, the deer population is not declining or even increasing. Or the author just asks hunters of one particular location, perhaps deer in that region happened to be declining at that time, but the overall population is not. Unless evidence was provided that the whole population of deer is declining, the judgment is unjustifiable. Second, even if the deer population are declining, the global warming trends just coincide with the declining population, there is no evidence showing that its the global warming that causes deer populations decline. It quite possible that global warming trends do not melt the sea ice of Canadas arctic region and perhaps Canadas arctic region is becoming even colder, that deer are died because of lack of food. Without knowing whether the ice in arctic region of Canada are indeed melt or not, its impossible to draw any reliable conclusion from the coincidence. Third, even if the global warming trend do melt the ice of Canadas arctic region, we cant make hasty generalization that deer population are declining is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patters across the frozen sea. perhaps, the arctic deer neednt to across frozen sea, when global warming causes there are far too enough plants to guarantee their survival. Thus global warming has increased the deer population. Or, the deer population is declining due to other reasons such as the undue hunting activities. While the author overlook such alternatives, its unlikely that his argument is logically justifiable. In sum, the authors argument fails to prove that the declining deer population result from being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea. To strengthen his statement, we at least need evidence prove that the deer population is indeed declining and the global warming trend caused the sea ice in Canadas arctic region to melt. And we need further research that rule out other possibility that could cause the declining population.
作者的结论是，在北极地区的鹿的下降是鹿的结果是不能按照他们的古老的迁徙模式，在整个冰冻的海洋。根据最近全球变暖趋势，导致海冰融化和当地猎人的报告，鹿的数量正在下降，他的观点是一致的。看似有组织的逻辑，在某些方面是不能令人信服的论据。首先，当地猎人的报告的可靠性是值得怀疑的。作者并没有告诉我们多少当地猎人的报告，鹿的数量正在下降；它是完全有可能的，只是少数，例如3，猎人报道，，鹿的数量没有减少，甚至增加。或者作者只是要求一个特定的位置的猎人，也许在那个地区的鹿碰巧在那个时候下降，但总体人口是不。除非证明了整个人口的鹿是下降的，判断是不合理的。其次，即使鹿的人口数量正在下降，全球变暖趋势与人口数量的减少是一致的，也没有证据表明这是导致鹿人口下降的全球变暖。很有可能全球变暖趋势不融化加拿大北极地区的海冰，也许加拿大的北极地区变得更冷，因为缺乏食物，鹿死了。如果不知道加拿大北极地区的冰是否真的融化，就不可能从巧合中得出任何可靠的结论。第三，即使全球变暖趋势做加拿大北极地区的冰融化，我们能不能草率做出概括，鹿的数量正在下降是结果鹿无法按照他们古老的迁徙花纹在冰冻的海面。也许，北极鹿不必穿越冰冻的海洋，当全球变暖导致的植物有足够的植物来保证它们的生存。因此全球变暖增加了鹿的数量。或者，由于其他原因，如不适当的狩猎活动，鹿的数量正在下降。尽管作者忽略了这种选择，但他的论证是不可能的。总的说来，作者的论点未能证明，鹿的数量下降导致无法按照他们古老的迁徙模式，在整个海上。为了加强他的声明，我们至少需要有证据证明，鹿的人口确实正在下降，全球变暖的趋势导致了加拿大北极地区的海冰融化。我们还需要进一步的研究，排除其他可能导致人口下降的可能性。